For you stattos out there

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For you stattos out there

Postby Accies4ever » Sun Feb 01, 2015 4:42 pm

How many more points do we need (historically and based upon this season) to gain top six?

Also how many points do we need to guarantee we're free of relegation. Are we already there?
We're 22 pts clear of St Mirren and Motherwell, with 8 games left, so the next game could guarantee that, however we may already have achieved that.

Anyone know?
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Re: For you stattos out there

Postby Whiskeytown » Sun Feb 01, 2015 5:05 pm

Worries about relegation are daft. The bottom three sides will all be doing very well to get to 35 points and will all lose plenty more games. Dundee's final five games are against top 6 sides including Celtic and Aberdeen. Can't see Killie finishing above us before split if they don't beat us on Saturday. A draw would be decent enough but a win should see us top 6 unless we collapse again and Dundee go on an amazing run. Last season St Johnstone got to 48 points before split and they finished 6th. Our last few fixtures look very winnable - Motherwell away, St J at home, Killie at home before a toughie at Tannadice. We also go to St Mirren soon.
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Re: For you stattos out there

Postby redandwhite1874 » Sun Feb 01, 2015 5:06 pm

In terms of relegation in theory St M and Motherwell could get 22 points if the won the 7 other games and drew with each - if someone had to win that game then 21 points is the most the loser could get. So nearly nearly there.

In terms of top 6; not sure history is much use - we are only 7 clear of Dundee so a lot still to be done re that.
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Re: For you stattos out there

Postby Accies4ever » Sun Feb 01, 2015 5:30 pm

I fully realise that we're safe from relegation, I just wondered when we're mathematically safe.

Motherwell play St Mirren on 8/4/15, so they both can't pick up 3 points from that game.
I'm sure we are already mathematically safe, but just wondered.

We have winnable games before the split : Ross Co, St Mirren, St Johnstone, Motherwell, Kilmarnock and could maybe also pick up an odd point here and there, so I think we'll be fine.

Just curious if anyone had crunched the numbers.
Obviously no one knows how our closest rivals (St J, Dundee and Killie) will do between now and split.
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Re: For you stattos out there

Postby Accies4ever » Sun Feb 01, 2015 5:36 pm

I think the draw against Dundee yesterday will be significant.

Had we lost the gab would have been too close to call.
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Re: For you stattos out there

Postby Accies4ever » Sun Feb 01, 2015 5:37 pm

Meant to say GAP
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Re: For you stattos out there

Postby Willie Wastle » Sun Feb 01, 2015 5:59 pm

redandwhite1874 wrote:In terms of relegation in theory St M and Motherwell could get 22 points if the won the 7 other games and drew with each - if someone had to win that game then 21 points is the most the loser could get. So nearly nearly there.

In terms of top 6; not sure history is much use - we are only 7 clear of Dundee so a lot still to be done re that.

I've just checked the table - not the fixtures - and it looks like Motherwell have a game in hand. Therefore, if St Mirren win the game between them, both of them can get another 24 points, taking them to 42 points each, two more than us, if we lose all our remaining games till the split. Of course, that's just arithmetic, but a ludicrously unlikely combination of results. Relegation and the play offs no longer concern us, and one more win should make that an arithmetic certainty too.

Can both St Johnstone and Dundee overtake us, and deny us a top six place? Eight games is certainly enough for Dundee to make up the gap of 7 points and 8 goals, but going by the coming fixtures described in this thread, it's a tall order for them. As long as can rediscover some of our form from earlier in the season, we should be OK.
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Re: For you stattos out there

Postby Alfie Olek » Sun Feb 01, 2015 6:44 pm

I fully realise that we're safe from relegation, I just wondered when we're mathematically safe.


I’ve looked back the league table for the last 15 seasons. On 3 occasions the team in 11th place at the end of the season has had 40 points or higher and had the plays offs been up and running they would have been het. In 2012/13 St Mirren had 41 points, one more than we currently have. Season 2007/08 Killie had 40 and Season 2001/02 Motherwell had 40. While realistically I can’t see us not winning a single point between now and the end of the season, I want to see us take 3 points next saturday and with 43 points Im 99% sure we can say goodbye to any relegation fears. Armed with that knowledge the players should then set themselves a target of top 6. if we get back to our form under Alex it is more than achievable.
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Re: For you stattos out there

Postby Accies4ever » Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:27 pm

As far as relegation is concerned, if we're not already mathematically safe, then we all know it would take some freakish set of results to put us down coupled with an absolute collapse from Accies.
That ain't gonna happen.

Our focus has to be achieving top 6.
As long as we keep our eye on the ball (so to speak), we should be fine.
There's plenty of games between now and the split to pick up more than enough points to achieve that.
I'd hate to end the season playing the dross at the arse end of the table.

After the split, our focus is achieving as high a position as possible, but realistically maintaining at least 5th position is our goal.

I'm sure everyone, inside and outside Accies, would consider that a huge success.
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