Accies .V. Ross County - MATCH THREAD

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Re: Accies .V. Ross County - MATCH THREAD

Postby Willie Wastle » Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:07 am

What we learned from yesterday:

1. Accies are not in a death spiral, as some of our 'fans' have been claiming. For the third time this season, we ended a losing streak with an important win. Our team showed, yet again, that they are resilient.

2. Our team is full of winners. Some of our players aren't the best, some are inconsistent, but they are all capable of match-winning performances. Sarris can be a bombscare at times, but he was immense yesterday. Imrie is just about finished, but in the face of provocation and gamesmanship, he scored a cool penalty that turned the game. Redmond can be anonymous (which is why he struggles to get in the team), but he has the talent to open up defences, as with our second goal.

3. Ross County are down. If they hadn't had that freak 4-0 win over Partick, we'd see their true standing. Even now, they're last, and it wouldn't surprise me if they lose their last three. I hope they don't - I'd like them to nick points off Dundee and Partick - but we saw yesterday that they're a demoralised team.

4. Martin Canning has almost achieved what many even of our own claimed he couldn't, and kept Accies up for a fifth season in the SPL. Despite a turnover of more than half a team in a year. Bringing us back from the brink more than once. Recording impressive away victories at Hibs, Rangers and Motherwell. And winning when it matters, like yesterday.

It's a great time to be an Accies supporter.
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Re: Accies .V. Ross County - MATCH THREAD

Postby Stevie Clarke » Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:35 am

smc4761 wrote:Watched the first half on Sky then had to leave for work. I appreciate that this was a high pressure game, but that was one of the worst games of football I have ever seen. Both sides were atrocious. Big hoof up the park and chase. God knows what the TV audience in England would have made of that, and that one of the SPFL top 10 sides

Bottom line 3 points and I reckon we could get away by winning one more game

How was the crowd today, a big turn out given the decent offer made by board to season ticket holders??


I'm sorry, but who gives a damn what fifty folk in England thought of it, if there was even that big an audience. I've seen plenty of awful football from down south in my time.
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Re: Accies .V. Ross County - MATCH THREAD

Postby Willie Wastle » Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:43 am

smc4761 wrote:I reckon we could get away by winning one more game

One more win guarantees safety (probably less than that would be enough).

It's a maths thing. Think of it this way: 3 teams below us can each get a maximum of 9 points, but they can't all get 9 because they all play each other, so there's a maximum of (27-9=) 18 points up for grabs, or an average of 6 for each of them (less if there are draws). One more win would put us 7 ahead of Partick and 9 ahead of Ross County - uncatchable. You can play around with the scenarios, but if we win one more game and get to 36 points, it's impossible for 2 out of 3 of our rivals to overtake us.
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Re: Accies .V. Ross County - MATCH THREAD

Postby Willie Wastle » Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:43 am

Willie Wastle wrote:
smc4761 wrote:I reckon we could get away by winning one more game

One more win guarantees safety (probably less than that would be enough).

It's a maths thing. Think of it this way: 3 teams below us can each get a maximum of 9 points, but they can't all get 9 because they all play each other, so there's a maximum of (27-9=) 18 points up for grabs, or an average of 6 for each of them (less if there are draws). One more win would put us 7 ahead of Partick and 9 ahead of Ross County - uncatchable. You can play around with the scenarios, but if we win one more game and get to 36 points, it's impossible for 2 out of 3 of our rivals to overtake us.

Slight qualification: I should have said winning at Dens guarantees safety. There's one, extremely unlikely, scenario where we could still end up in the play-off spot if we lose at Dens and win one of our remaining games, while losing the other. Partick would need to win all three of their remaining games (unlikely), and Dundee would need to beat us, lose to Partick and get at least a draw against County (that specific combination only) - that scenario could disappear before we play again (if Partick fail to beat County on Friday night).
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Re: Accies .V. Ross County - MATCH THREAD

Postby Willie Wastle » Sun Apr 29, 2018 12:49 pm

There remains - of course - a scenario where we can make things tough for ourselves.

Partick beat County on Friday night, then we lose at Dens on Saturday.

I'd still rather be in our position than Partick's, and our fate would still be in our own hands. If we beat St Johnstone at home a week on Tuesday, Partick would need to win their last two (so three wins in a row for them!) and hope we lose to Motherwell on the last day.

But we won't lose at Dens, right? ;)

Best result for us Friday night = a draw; second best is a County win.
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