A wee bit of maths

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A wee bit of maths

Postby smc4761 » Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:12 am

Getting to squeaky bum time at bottom of league so a wee bit of maths to maybe cheer us up

We have 11 games left, if we win 4 games gives us,41 points

Thistle have 9 games left and to reach 41 points they would need to win 5 and draw 1

County have 9 games left and would need to win 7 of these

Dundee have 9 games left and would need to win 5 of these

Can we do it?

Think County have gone , its just gonna be a battle between the rest of us
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Re: A wee bit of maths

Postby TerracingTomas » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:26 pm

Why 41 smc? Is that a points total that traditionally has seen a team relegated or in the play offs?
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Re: A wee bit of maths

Postby porcupine » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:29 pm

I like the maths idea, smc!

This indicates "just" a 36% win ratio of 4 from 11 from our last games.

Compare this against Thistle & Dundee who need 55%.

Like you, I think County @ 78% are gone, but after yesterday, our visit up there will be a real test for both teams.

What are the figures for St J & 'Well, BTW?
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Re: A wee bit of maths

Postby porcupine » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:30 pm

TerracingTomas wrote:Why 41 smc? Is that a points total that traditionally has seen a team relegated or in the play offs?


41 is usually survival!
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Re: A wee bit of maths

Postby TerracingTomas » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:36 pm

If i remember last season correctly we went into the cut off games reasonably optimistic but had a rotten set of results that saw us in the play offs. So where ever you are in the bottom six you are still vulnerable. Best strategy before the split is to get as many points as we can on the board starting with next saturday.
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Re: A wee bit of maths

Postby smc4761 » Sun Mar 11, 2018 1:05 pm

40 points is traditionally thought of as safe, to be honest think it will be less this year for play off spot. County have pretty much gone unless they can win at least minimum of 5 games. Really just who wants it more.

Traditionally we do well in the bottom six games and we should be aiming to win at least 2 of these maybe a draw as well. If we can keep players fit and avoid suspension there is hope.

I will put mu hands up here, I want Canning out and have done for some time and thought we were toast earlier in season. But fair do's to Canning and players they have done well
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Re: A wee bit of maths

Postby Willie Wastle » Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:10 pm

I've been saying for some time that County were gone, but they're not there yet, and they have home games coming up against both us and Partick - win both of those and they're back in it. But I doubt they'll do that, they could even lose both games.

So the play-off place is between us, Partick and Dundee, with an outside possibility St Johnstone could still get dragged into it, especially if we beat them up there in the re-scheduled game.

The maths is favourable. Not only are we the best-placed of the play-off candidates, we're also doing much better than last season. And last season we only ended up in the play-off spot because of our horrendous run post-spilt.

Clearly back-to-back wins engenders confidence, so we're all likely to be a bit more optimistic at the moment. But it also engenders player confidence: if we can pick up some points from our games in hand, we could find ourselves in quite a strong position going into the split. Wins in Perth and Dingwall could go a long way to ensuring our SPL survival. I think we'll stay up.
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Re: A wee bit of maths

Postby porcupine » Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:37 pm

And, if you look at the full table our goals scored at 38, compares well against Dundee 30, Thistle 26, and County 31. Goals against not so good with us at 48 conceeded, Dundee & Partick at 47 and County at 51. We even have better goal difference of 3 than St J.

Our defence looked pretty solid yesterday, if not pretty to watch, with Want slotting in really well, and VDW looking a stone lighter, and fitter. If I were Canning I would not change this for the next game. I, too, think we will keep our place this season, especially is we get Daz back before/during the Split.
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Re: A wee bit of maths

Postby accies1874 » Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:39 pm

Three wins would do, and with us still to play County and St Johnstone twice and, obviously, the rest of the bottom six, that is manageable. Last season's late collapse just showed how quickly these things can go south though.
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Re: A wee bit of maths

Postby Euan » Sun Mar 11, 2018 4:35 pm

Looks like we’ll be home to St Johnstone and County and away to Motherwell, Thistle and Dundee post split.
Kilmarnock (h&a) County (a) Hibs (a) St Johnstone (a) and Celtic (h) should see at least 3 more points, but if we can get 4 or 5 more points pre split I’d expect us to be safe.
Dundee are my favourite for the play off with County bottom.
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Re: A wee bit of maths

Postby Bomber Harris » Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:59 pm

Couldn't give a toss how many points we have. Aslong as we've got more than the bottom 2 that'll do for me.
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Re: A wee bit of maths

Postby porcupine » Sat Mar 17, 2018 10:10 pm

Speculation. County loose two of their last three games & take either 3 points or 1 point from their game against Thistle.
Thistle loose two of their last three games & take either 3 points or 1 point from their game against County.

Even if we take nothing from our last five games before the split, we are still well ahead on points at that stage. I can't see us on a melt-down like last season's split games. We have a stronger squad in depth, and a team willing to fight for each other without any passengers.

We WILL win points in the final five games and I believe we will have maintained our Premier status before the last games are played.
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